Saturday, June 23, 2018

Handicapping Upcoming Nevada Race

February 14, 2018 by  
Filed under Community

BY LOUIE OVERSTREET

Louie Overstreet

Congressman Ruben Kihuen of the 4th District has announced that he will not be seeking re-election. The district, which has a Democratic registration advantage, is going to have a very interesting primary.

Potential candidates — both official and unannounced — include Morse Arberry, the former assemblyman and longtime chair of the Ways and Means Committee; State Sen. Pat Spearman; and former congressman Steven Horsford.

My friend Arberry certainly delivered for his community during his time in the state legislature. However, “Moose” is going to have a tough time raising funds and gaining endorsements in a crowded primary. Pat Spearman has done a good job as a state senator, but fundraising is going to be a heavy lift for her as well. However, she should be able to garner some significant endorsements.

By far the most intriguing candidate, if he runs, will be Steven Horsford. He would have the easiest time raising money and most likely gain the highly valued endorsement of the Culinary Union. However, he will bring the most baggage to the race:

  • He was roundly criticized for lousy constituent services outreach while in office
  • He ran an inept campaign for re-election and was beaten by a Republican from a rural part of the district
  • He has been living in D.C. for a number of years

Congresswoman Dina Titus of Nevada’s 1st Congressional District is supporting North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. She was quoted a month or so ago in Ray Hagar’s Nevada Newsmakers’ piece, saying that “advertisements against Horsford would basically write themselves.”

Given the large number of Hispanics who reside in the district, I am surprised no names have come forth yet, but it’s still early.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary between Clark County Commissioners Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani will be hotly contested, as will the Republican race between Danny Tarkanian and Trump-supporting incumbent Senator Dean Heller.

My early handicapping is that Spearman will emerge from the primary, as will Sisolak and Heller.

My prediction: after November 8, it will be Congresswoman Spearman, Governor Sisolak, and Senator Jacky Rosen, Heller’s opponent in the general.

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